P(Archive) = 1

On the pointlessness of P(Doom). Plus, Bobiverse, Department Q. and Game Boy emulation — Monday Dispatch 2025/07/28

Welcome to Monday Dispatch, a bonus edition for paid subscribers. Thank you for your support—it means a lot and helps me keep writing.

In this post, thoughts on P(Doom), a couple of book series I’ve been enjoying, and how to run Game Boy games on iOS.

P(Doom)? P(Archive) = 1

I have a paid subscription to Sam Harris’ podcast Making Sense, so you’d think I’d get the most out of my money and listen to every episode.

Yet when guest Paul Bloom asked Sam what his P(Doom) is, and they both agree it ought to be in the double digits, I archived the podcast and moved on.

There is only one correct answer to the P(Doom) question: I don’t know.

The future is unpredictable. Any domain where humans are involved is affected by human creativity and our capacity for generating new ideas, whether good or bad. This impact of creativity makes the future unpredictable.

The progress of LLM and AGI research — two different fields that Sam and his guests often conflate — cannot be separated from the unpredictable people involved in it. But it’s not just the builders and researchers that affect the future of AI. We cannot predict future memes which may shift public opinion in favor of or against these technologies and therefore affect policy, like it unfortunately happened for nuclear energy.

I realize this may come across as arrogant and close-minded. Isn’t progress all about taking interlocutors seriously, understanding their ideas, and then criticizing them?

Fair point. But one can only listen to so many conversations based on the same misconceptions. I’ve heard enough P(Doom) conversations to last me a good while, and given the reality of limited time and attention, I’d rather listen to something else.

Speaking of listening to something else, here are two recommendations for book series that are great on audiobook.